The threatening world of failed states

By: Angel E. Alvarez, PhD

The state institutions play a fundamental role in the production and allocation of public goods, which the market does not provide, or does so inefficiently. The minimal state provides at least basic goods such as national security and public order, the rule of law, macroeconomic stability. The democratic welfare state directly or indirectly manages social welfare policies and institutions and promotes economic and social development. Neoliberal and anarchists fantasies aside, the absence or diminishing of a state is far from being a desirable situation.
 

The fragility and failure of the state have dramatic effects nationwide. A failed state is unable to ensure social order and security of people, which translates into exacerbated crime rates, deteriorating public health, epidemics, infant and youth mortality, deterioration of public services, shortages of food and scarcity of water. The crises associated with state fragility lead to brain drain, mass migration, and refugee displacement. They correlate with a severe economic crisis, unemployment, and acute poverty, as well as inequities in the distribution of income, corruption, social violence, discrimination, and severe political instability—successive coups d'état, civil wars, and oppressive autocracies.
 

At the international level, state fragility and failure generate greatest challenges. In a globalized world, the decline of a state can become a threat to neighboring countries. It may demand international attention for its effects on the economy, migration (both legal and illegal), the spread of communicable diseases, environmental damages with global effects, the political radicalization of violent groups that might threaten global security, and the violation of fundamental human rights of vast majorities. State failure is not a minor issue. Nor is it a problem for just a handful of unimportant countries. On the contrary, it is a global phenomenon that requires further study by specialists and greater action by governments, international organizations and multilateral agencies.
 

According to the 2016 State Fragility Index, only Finland ranks as a very sustainable state. Fifteen other states are considered sustainable. Canada is among them—in the ninth position of this group. 37 countries are stable or very stable. The United Kingdom, the United States, and, in Latin America Uruguay, Chile, Costa Rica, Argentina and Panama belong in one of those two categories.
 

Eighteen countries are under moderate warning of political, economic and social instability. Among them, five countries (including Brazil and Cuba) are from Latin America and the Caribbean. 40 countries face low high warning. 11 of them are from the region. Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala are among the 29 countries with a very high level of warning. 22 countries are on alert, eight on eight others are on high alert and eight more on very high alert.
 

Haiti, the most typical case of state fragility in the Americas, is the only country of the region classified in high alert. The rest of the countries under any of the three levels of alert from Africa, Middle-East and West Asia. However, the situation on the continent is unsettling. Except for seven countries (including Canada and the US), there are critical weaknesses in the vast majority of Latin America and the Caribbean states.
 

The situation tends to worsen over time. In 2016, 78 countries improved their scores compared with 2015, but there was no major change in 23 other nations and 77 states got worse. Since 2007, when this index is measured for the first time, to the current year, the capabilities of ninety states have improved, but they have worsened in seventy countries, and seventeen of them have not significantly changed. Sadly, in the region, Venezuela and Guatemala are among countries that have worsened between 2015 and 2016.
 

The good news is that Canada is among the countries that have improved over the period. However, in a world where the quality of most of the states in Latin America, Middle-East, and Africa is deteriorating, and where there are risks that the situation gets even worse, Canada cannot be seen as an island. Like other countries with sustainable and stable states, and the international organizations and multilateral agencies, Canada should consider the possibility to participate more actively in the cooperation for the recovery of failed states and those at risk of failing.
 

Note: The data on state failure is available from the Fragile State Index 2016 report, published by The Fund for Peace (http://fsi.fundforpeace.org/)